I. The First Civil War: A Lesson in Division
The first Civil War didn’t begin with a grand declaration or a congressional vote. It began with a shot.
In 1861, there was only one United States Army. No North Army. No South Army. Just one body of soldiers who suddenly had to choose a side. For some, loyalty was to the Union. For others, it was to their home state. Robert E. Lee turned his back on the U.S. Army to serve Virginia. George H. Thomas, a Virginian, stayed with the Union and was disowned by his family.
The split wasn’t intellectual — it was primal. Belonging over law. State before nation.
When Confederate guns fired on Fort Sumter in April 1861, they weren’t just firing at a fort. They were firing at the idea of one country. Six hundred thousand Americans would die before the shooting stopped. And even then, the Confederacy didn’t really die. It was embalmed in marble statues and Confederate flags, embalmed in textbooks that romanticized slavery as “heritage,” embalmed in a myth called the Lost Cause.
II. The New Fracture: 2025
Fast forward to today.
A President — convicted 34 times and still seated in the Oval Office — orders the Texas National Guard into Illinois over the objections of its governor and the mayor of Chicago. And today calling for their arrest!
Congress? Shut down. Powerless. Irrelevant.
The courts? Too slow to matter.
The executive? Acting alone, daring anyone to stop him.
This isn’t theoretical. It’s live. Illinois Guard answers to Springfield. Texas Guard answers to Austin or Washington, depending on who claims command. Once again, American troops stand on the edge of facing American troops.
It’s not secession this time. It’s occupation.
And just like 1861, all it takes is one shot.
III. The Powder Keg + The Holdovers
Picture this: a protest outside the ICE detention center in Broadview, Illinois. Clergy holding signs. Families chanting. Community members demanding dignity. Just two days ago, a priest was pepper sprayed there. Chicago police officers were caught in clouds of tear gas while trying to do crowd control.
Now imagine the same standoff with Texas National Guard troops in the mix. A protestor shouts. Someone throws a plastic bottle. A Guardsman panics and fires.
Chaos erupts. Civilians hit the ground. Clergy scatter. Families scream. Chicago PD rushes in, sworn to protect residents. Illinois State Troopers flank them. The governor calls up the Illinois National Guard.
Now you have Texans in uniform facing Illinoisians in uniform outside an ICE facility. Two sets of soldiers, both American, both carrying rifles, both claiming legitimacy.
Into that chaos, militias pour in — Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, Three Percenters. Men with Confederate flags on their trucks and AR-15s slung over their shoulders. They see themselves as the heirs of the Lost Cause, given a second chance. And unlike 1861, when only armies held serious firepower, today millions of civilians own battlefield rifles.
These militias don’t wait for orders. They don’t follow rules of engagement. They escalate. And with them, the Confederacy rises again.
IV. The W.E.I. Factor: Purging the Ranks
While the streets churn, the military itself is being remade.
At Quantico, Pete Hegseth and the President staged a performance — not a briefing, but a sermon. They mocked “dudes in dresses.” They sneered at DEI. They laid out a vision of a “restored” force, stripped of diversity and rebuilt on W.E.I.: White, Entitled, Inept.
If their fantasy is carried out, the math is chilling:
- Nearly half of enlisted troops would be gone — women and minorities purged overnight.
- About 35% of junior officers would vanish.
- The top brass? Already more than 80% white. I do doubt all of them will pick this administration over Country.
That’s not merit. That’s not readiness. That’s whiteness as the chain of command.
Which means that when the first shot is fired, the institution itself may already be rigged to pick a side — not the Constitution, but the color line.
V. ICE: The Shadow Army
And then there’s ICE.
Not military, not Guard, but armed like both — already operating inside neighborhoods. They don’t raid country clubs. They raid Home Depot parking lots, bus stops, and apartment complexes. They’re not protecting America. They’re terrorizing communities.
And look who fills their ranks:
- Disgraced ex-cops.
- Washed-out ex-military.
- Wannabe soldiers with badges.
- And pardoned insurrectionists who traded horned helmets for tactical vests.
ICE doesn’t need the Insurrection Act. They’re already deputized. They’re already armed. And they’re already racist in culture and practice. In a civil fracture, they won’t be neutral. They’ll be the twenty-first-century slave patrol — the federalized shock troops of whiteness.
VI. The Worst Case: Red vs. Blue States at War
Here’s the decision tree — the map of inevitability:
- Best case: courts intervene quickly, casualties are limited, the fight shifts back to law.
- Middle case: dozens die in Broadview, federal troops occupy blue cities, red and blue governors harden into opposing blocs.
- Worst case: Guards mobilize as red vs. blue armies, militias swarm every clash, ICE raids escalate into neighborhood wars, and the Army fractures — some units obeying the President, others refusing.
Unlike 1861, there won’t be neat borders. There will be battle lines running down highways, across city blocks, even through families.
VII. The Inevitability We Refuse to Name
The first Civil War was born of slavery, secession, and state loyalty. The next will be born of whiteness, unchecked executive power, and identity.
The Lost Cause never died — it reloaded. The W.E.I. purge isn’t about readiness — it’s about ensuring the armed forces pick whiteness over the Constitution. ICE is already the shadow army.
We like to say “it can’t happen here.” But it already is. Out-of-state troops in Illinois. Militias openly drilling. A Congress sidelined into irrelevance. A President daring courts to stop him while deploying forces like chess pieces.
The first Civil War started with one shot at Fort Sumter. The next may start with one shot outside an ICE detention center in Broadview.
The inevitability isn’t geography. It’s logic. When law collapses, when branches die, when soldiers become occupiers, conflict isn’t a possibility. It’s a countdown.
Gil Scott-Heron told us, “The revolution will not be televised.”
The next American Civil War will be livestreamed, archived, and replayed in 4K.
